I have grown tired of all the hoopla about guns and ammo and Obama.

A common phrase used by many is “gun nut”, which means, I guess, a guy that sleeps with his rifle, and oils and polishes it up daily. These guys are not forcing other people to buy guns. They are not waving their rifles in peoples faces. They are not banding together to force others to buy guns, even though the precedent has been set at the federal level by forcing us to buy health insurance.

I am thinking, here in my old brain, that the shoe of ‘nuttiness’ is on the wrong foot. I believe that it is ‘anti-gun nuts’ that are driving all the hoopla, and are actually driving firearm and ammunition sales through the roof in America. This particular minority group honestly believes that only criminals own guns.

So, let’s have a gander at some readily available numbers:

Number of Guns

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/10/05/guns-in-the-united-states-one-for-every-man-woman-and-child-and-then-some/

Let’s assume for this conversation that the number is 360,000,000 guns in America, but I believe that number is light because the criminal element isn’t included, nor are heritage firearms handed down within families.

Number of Government Employees

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/21955000-12329000-government-employees-outnumber-manufacturing

For the sake of argument, let’s use 22,000,000 federal, state, county and municipal employees in the country.

US Population

http://www.census.gov/popclock/

Simply, we will use 323,000,000 as the population. To be fair, we will use 76% of that and back out those under age 18, leaving us with 245,480,000 adults.

So, how many own guns according to Newsweek?

http://www.newsweek.com/us-gun-ownership-declines-312822

If you read this article, you know that this number is under-reported by the GSS and seems to be over-reported by the NRA. Based on the increase in both gun and ammunition sales over the terms of Obama, I tend to go with the NRA. The GSS numbers do not make sense, unless people simply turned in the guns inherited from the previous generations. That alone makes me very suspect of their survey, not to mention that people worried about disclosing they own a gun are not going to tell some random survey they do. In the current atmosphere of hate directed at gun owners, I do not disclose my own firearms. Neither survey takes into account criminally owned firearms either.

I am running with gun ownership of 40% and again, I personally believe that number is very light.

OK, so we have the following:

Gun Count = 360,000,000

Gun Owner Count = 245,480,000 X .4 = 98,192,000

Government Employee Count = 22,000,000

Guns per Owner = 360,000,000/98,192,000 = 3.7

Now, let’s make some honest assessments regarding these numbers.

Government Employee Count is ALL government employees – court clerks, receptionists, aides, politicians, judges, DMV personnel, soldiers, etc. Let’s be generous and assume that 50% of these folks, many your neighbors and fellow gun owners, agree to force the rest of us to give up our guns.

So in the event of government coming to take away your guns, what must they do?

Well, 11,000,000 people must force 98,192,000 people to surrender their firearms. That is roughly 9 gun owners for each gun ‘taker’ and 35 guns of various types for the gun ‘taker’ to confiscate.

Assume only 50% of the gun owners refuse, and you have each of the ‘takers’ responsible for 4 or 5 owners. One must also assume these ‘takers’ are willing to risk their lives to obtain your gun. That being acknowledged, I would stipulate that MOST of the takers are simply not going to risk their lives trying to force you to give up your firearms. Most are just employees, not crusaders. Crusaders abound when there is no risk of losing your life. This would be very different.

So let’s assume the military is ordered to confiscate firearms. That means 1,500,000 military, of which 65% are non-combatants. Remember, armies run on ther stomachs, maintenance and fuel supply – the number of actual, fighting soldiers is much smaller. So now we have 975,000 actual fighting soldiers attempting to take firearms from 49,096,000 citizens (remember – 50% simply surrendered their firearms earlier). This does NOT take into account any soldiers refusing to follow orders to fire on their own citizens, nor does it take into account heirloom or criminal firearms, nor does it deduct headcount for the soldiers required to man the 660 overseas military bases we currently have. If those are factored into this exercise, then the government position is even more upside down relative to the citizens.

In simplest terms, each soldier must personally confront 50 families, which have 3.7 guns per household, or 1 automatic rifle versus 185 miscellaneous firearms.

No matter how you slice and dice the numbers, the government forces will lose if confrontation occurs on a national level. This would instantly DE-legitimize the entire federal government – they require 75-80% obedience to even maintain power.

The short story here is that the LAST thing federal government actually wants is direct confrontation with armed citizens – government will inevitably lose, as the numbers are simply not there for them. The real reason behind the push for more gun laws is to force or coerce the populace into SURRENDERING VOLUNTARILY – as it is obviously the only way they can win.

Now, you can argue as many points as you like, and try to disassemble my simple math with Common Core math – feel free. But just a simple look at 975,000 soldiers faced with 98,192,000 citizens with 360,000,000 guns should make you breathe easier.

 

Now, how about another reason – that even accurately counting firearms is impossible. Let’s look at the process a dealer with a Federal Firearms License goes through when selling a gun. The following steps occur:

  1. I say I want a gun and we agree on price
  2. ATF Form 4473 filled out and transmitted to FBI (https://www.atf.gov/file/61446/download)
  3. Four outcomes are possible for this transaction: Proceed, Denied, Cancelled or Delayed
  4. If delayed, gun seller has right to proceed with sale in 72 hours if the FBI does not follow-up on “Delayed” reply to background check
  5. Gun seller has right to refuse to sell a gun to ANYONE for ANY REASON
  6. Sale is logged in Registry with MFG, SER#, GUN TYPE, IDENTIFICATION INFO. This registry is PAPER, and is held by the FFL dealer.
  7. FFL dealers are (legally required and supposed to be) audited yearly by the ATF for current inventory matching the registry documentation. ATF does not copy or otherwise duplicate the registry of the FFL dealer.
  8. If the FFL is surrendered, then the ATF requests the registry be sent in to their office.

 

Please note Item #5. Regardless of what the ‘anti-gun nuts’ try to intimate or slur about FFL dealers, most of them have common sense and their livelihood depends on following the law much more strictly than the average citizen. A guy obviously high or drunk or agitated emotionally or saying stupid things is just not going to be sold a gun. The FFL dealer just has to tell him it was Denied and is out of his hands; or that the FBI server is being hacked or most anything – including “I am not going to sell you a gun.” Period. I have seen this happen at a gun shop myself…

There is NO federal database of gun owners – the ATF does not and has not collected this data from FFL dealers. Let me repeat this – there is no federal database of gun owners. There is a database of Form 4473 applicants, but that is all the government is supplied in the event of a legal sale from an FFL dealer. Serial numbers were not even required until the GCA was enacted in 1968, and older firearms often cause inexperienced ATF auditors to freak out as they are not serialized.

Once the transaction is concluded, the government is out of the picture.

So this is what registering your gun really means, and who carries the information of the initial purchase. This is the only information the government has – if you give firearms away, there is no tracking mechanism at the federal level. If you own a CCL, then the Form 4473 is not applicable – you can just buy another gun without any background check.

Why is this important?   It’s all in the numbers – again!

The ATF has 4900 employees trying to ride herd on about 15,000,000 legal gun sales per year – not to mention their alcohol and tobacco duties. There are roughly 130,000 FFL dealers in the country, thus 130,000 gun registry books kept. 130,000 registries and 260 working days per year equals 500 audits per day, excluding federal holidays. Each audit takes a day minimum, and much more for places like Academy or other large outfits, and this isn’t counting travel time. If 100% of ATF employees audited FFL registries, then they might get the job done in a theoretical 6 months. In short, the government cannot and does not even comply with its own rules for auditing due to manpower and budgetary shortfalls.

ATF is always looking for illegal gun sales or mass quantities of illegal firearms – their enforcement division is much more concerned with this than legal gun sales, and rightly so. They need to do as every federal enforcement agency does – go for the big violators that have no political pull – to keep their funding going and their visibility during the budget process.

There are an estimated 360,000,000 firearms in this country – but that estimate is based on very little hard data. There is little historical data available, as most of the documents never made it into the digitizing pile because of the sheer number of them. If everyone tried to turn in their guns, the government has insufficient storage space for them – and insufficient workers to receive them or document receipt. They would have to crush and bury them on the spot.

As with the scenario of government coming to take firearms away, there is just no way to track firearms past the initial sale – there are too many of us and there are 2-3 times as many guns in this country. ATF does not have the manpower to do much of anything except make examples of a few to keep the others in line.

This is the way the entire government functions, if you simply look at the numbers presented in this little exercise. That is why they actually step very carefully and work in small increments – lest they rile up the entire ant pile (we being the ants) and get bitten.

I am not telling anyone to simply ignore what the government is trying to do with respect to gun laws. What I am saying is that it does not matter – it is irrelevant unless they try to force the issue, and then they lose. The agitation the “anti-gun nuts” have caused has actually boosted gun and ammo sales, along with FFL and CCL applications.

Remain calm, review the math outlined in this exercise and know that it is the ‘anti-gun nuts’ and various politicians driving this to gain voters and funding. The issue is pretty well settled in my mind – all we need to do is resist, if or when necessary, and vote appropriately on local and state ballot issues.

Yes, the Governor of Texas tweeted Obama to “Come and Take It!”

Why not?     He knows they can’t, and won’t….

Oilman2


Comments

“They” are Not Coming to Take Our Guns… — 24 Comments

  1. A compelling argument. The one soldier versus multiply families does not take into consideration a black ops helicopter on whisper mode flying over late at night and putting everyone to sleep for 12 hours. When you wake up with dry mouth you are either in a camp, or you are unarmed because they came while you were napping and took your doomsday arsenal with them. A small town completely unarmed in a single night without a shot fired. No property damage, no harm to livestock. This is not science fiction. This could be done.In this day and age,a canister of gas can accomplish a lot more than an armed assault. Push button warfare! Have a nice day!

    • @ Mohaverat – look at the numbers. How many men would be required to load the folks they knocked out? Where do you load them – on to what form of transport? How far can 2 men carry one man? Your scenario assumes a level playing field. 22m gov versus 92m civvies isn’t level. Now, just killing folks with gas or plague would be more likely, IMO.

  2. Thanks Oilman2. I always suspected this but never ran the numbers. “Behind every blade of grass.”

    Weatherguesser

  3. I admire you thought process on this. My question is how did Hitler get millions and millions of people to get in boxcars? How did Stalin starve millions and millions of people. The way he did it was incrementally. A nations freedoms can be forfeited by lack of knowledge in a generation.

    • @ Nor-Cal patriot – the primary methods of coercing people are the same as they ever were – water and food. When we get to the point that is being used, civilization is very broken already. Additionally, you have people who are simply incapable of making decisions that veer from the group -safety in numbers guys. They will all pile in the trains for security. Just don’t do it – can’t fix stupid anymore because we are past that point. I am not trying to be cruel here, just honest and realistic. If your kids do not know any better, then it is the parents fault. Buck stops with Dad IMO.

  4. What about the sub contractors who will be paid a hefty bounty for every gun they turn in, how many takers can be raised then?

    Just sayin’

  5. 100% agree, my thinking was 60 million hunters, another 20 million folks who understand firearms against 1 million military and about 1 million law enforcement types (LEO), same conclusion as you, “takers” lose (Yes, the military and LEO numbers can be easily paired down due to other constraints and the knowlegable gun owners can be easily increased – same result).

    What about the sub contractors who will be paid a hefty bounty for every gun they turn in, how many “takers” can be raised then? The govvies always sub contract.

    Further, these same numbers (albeit smaller but same modeling) applied to New Zealand, Australia and Great Britain. The governments were successful there.

    Just sayin’

    • @ catdaddy – interesting that 2 countries you mention are former commonwealths and the 3rd is the home of the monarchy. And all are islands. All are MUCH smaller than North America, even Australia because the center and southwest of it is scrub desert and water poor. And whether anybody wants to admit it or not, there are many who still retain their guns and ammo – the Oz.gov just doesn’t want to discuss it. In Darwin alone I saw guns aplenty. As in America, city folks do things that rural folk would not even consider.

      As with any conflict, if lead starts flying and people dying – things change, including contractors and what they are willing to risk. In all honesty, if the government comes after guns physically, then they are toast. Most Americans have had just about all they can stomach at this juncture, as have most Aussies. There are enclaves of nutty progressives all over the planet, but they can only exist when there is ecological largesse – as in cheap, available food-water-energy. When the going gets tough, progressives got nowhere to go, in keeping with being realistic.

      Everything changes when people begin shooting back, when there is suddenly risk. When you start looking at your paycheck and asking if this is worth dying for.

  6. Oilman 2, good analysis and logical range of possible outcomes for the taking of peoples firearms. I live in Texas and as heavily armed as we Texans living in rural areas are, there would be an out right 2nd revolution within a few days of government action performing violent activities. Once citizens realized government people were shooting civilians, people would go on the offense. A Red October movement would take out gov troops as soon as they attempted to move their troops. A MRAP still has rubber tires that a 308 would easily destroy. Civilian police vehicles are soft targets driving down country roads with armed civilians, North, South, East, and West of them. It would be, Ready on the left, Ready on the right, Fire for effect! I hope this scenario never happens for I came real close to combat flying fighters and tankers for 29 years.

    R D

  7. @ Red Dog

    An MRAP is very top heavy, low maneuverability and slow as molasses in winter. MRAPs are not the worry – actual Abrams are. Only way to retire an M1 without a SLAW or TOW is to cook it, sink it or lock up the tracks.

    Hollywood has run this out as movie fare numerous times – but Hollywood is not reality. The anti-gun nuts will stay in primarily in cities, support whatever government emerges and promises them security and pray for business as usual.

    They will be disappointed – with the debt load across the world and resource issues hammering the eternal-growth economies – change is coming. The questions are: how much longer can the can be kicked?; and what will the societal landscape look like after the financial collapse?

    A natural disaster and aftermath is much more predictable than a human induced one…

  8. I’ve also heard that any military vehicle can be nullified with a couple gallons of bleach broken on the vehicle. IIRC, bleach molecules are the same size as air molecules, if they are wearing gas masks, different story.

    I also hope it never comes to that, but gov has gotten stupid and arrogant, so who knows. As the old saying goes, keep your powder dry..

    • Agree that government has gotten stupid, but the reality is that this is due to hypercomplexity at all levels, redundant regulations within the FedGov and states and counties and cities. They want to make sure they have jobs is my best guess…

  9. Nice numbers. Also consider that the “take away” would have be done with a complete and total communications blackout nationwide. No cell phones, no wired phones, no internet, no running between neighbors, because the first house anywhere where this occurs will kick off the quickest, unofficial communications alert the world has ever seen and each and every other home-owner will not be alone when they come for his! Entire neighborhoods will look like a scene from Les Miserables with blockades and heavily armed guards covered by snipers everywhere.

    Also, this blackout would have to be in effect even before the orders were delivered as there going to be true, freedom loving Americans in every branch of the “takers” that will not just sit quietly when they hear what is about to go down. The first shots to be fired will likely be between national guardsmen or SWAT teams, etc. who disagree as to whether they, as a unit, will be takers or defenders. Both sides will end up with Abrams and other heavy artillery.

    • If we get to Mad Max times, then government has already lost – everybody loses in the slide down into the abyss between civilizations or governments. And now you have an idea why I prefer very rural to even moderately urban…

  10. One major mistake I can see in your analysis is you are leaving out UN troops, as well as the possibility of Martial Law being declared.

    • Martial Law is a joke IMHO, for the same reason they cannot possibly take all our guns away. There just aren’t enough on the Martial Team to do much except where people are highly concentrated – big cities. UN troops? Hand them $50 bucks and just do what you want – it works everywhere else in the world. Martial Law is a fear tactic when the country is as large as it is and the population so widely distributed. If they execute it and then start futzing with water or food supplies, they will lose quickly due to, again, just the numbers.

  11. Correct. “They” will not show up alone or in force to “take guns”. At first, anyway.

    They will first chip away at gun rights through passage of unconstitutional laws that levy a myriad of felonies for non-compliance.

    After they pass Australia and England type laws they’ll mail every gun owner a notice to turn them in. The notice will be strongly worded, intimidating, and note all the penalties for failure to comply.

    99% of the gun owners will eventually voluntarily comply because they’ll realize:

    “Shit! I’m gonna retire next year and move to (xyz state). I’m not goin’ to jail for a few guns!”

    “Fuck! I just bought a second house on the ocean. I can’t get arrested! Not over a few fuckin’ guns!”

    “Hell! I’m not goin’ to jail and get raped for a few guns!”

    Sonuvabitch! If the mofos come and I shoot it out and kill a few, and I’m caught and not killed, I’ll go to jail for life. It ain’t worth it to shoot it out, one man against a SWAT team.”

    You get the picture? FEAR and SELFISHNESS will be the DECIDING FACTOR. NO ONE wants to go to jail. NO ONE is ready to DIE FOR THEIR RIGHT.

    99% of the country WILL COMPLY.

    The 1% that don’t will be made examples of and permanently frighten the rest into compliance.

    England had it’s Lion of England, Churchill. After he was out of politics the English – who single handedly held off the world’s most powerful army at the time, Germany – turned into compliant subjects who dutifully obeyed the government disarmament diktat.

    Ditto Australia, New Zealand, Canada.

    USA will fall in line.

    I don’t like saying it but as a gun owner for 50 years I see the big picture and I see we let it get too far along to stop it now.

    • Gus, I am not sure the USA will even be here in its current form in 50 years. In Texas, guns are considered a birthright and that alone would be likely to unite people against overt and covert encroachment. Have a loom at the headcount for the ATF – there aren’t enough people to enforce these laws should folks simply choose to ignore them – as many are doing now anyway. If GUNS were the problem that the anti-everything-that-might-possibly-harm-you crowd thought they were, then there would be nightly wagons hauling off the corpses.

      IMO, the USA has so much debt that we will go bankrupt and be unable to service our debt when interest rates rise. That means government cannot pat it’s bills, and suddenly the rules of the game change.

  12. If obama asks, the UN will come running. They will bring weapontry that will level the playing field. Take it to the bank.

  13. When the Redcoats swarmed out of Boston to confiscate privately-owned weapons, they had a great initial victory. However, after that, they had to march back to Boston, being shot at from behind every rock and tree.

    The bad guys are invulnerable face-to-face, but they can be had while on the march.

    Even a child with a 22 single-shot can score a casualty on an enemy force on the move.

    The movie depicted a desperate British officer advising his superior, “Sir, we must surrender.” The superior answered, “And to whom would we surrender?”

    There is a moral to that little piece of fiction, if I could just put my finter on it.

  14. They won’t be going door to door as they’re too cowardly for that.

    A lot of them will get killed if they try, and they know it.

    Instead, everybody will receive a certified letter in the mail stating that you must turn your firearms and ammo in to the nearest law enforcement establishment and you will receive a tax voucher for $200 for each hand gun, $300 for each shotgun, $400 for each long gun, $100 for any amount of ammo or reloading products.

    When you renew any license you will sign a document stating you possess no firearms.

    When you enroll your child in a school you will sign that document.

    The banks and the state and federal tax collectors will require you to sign that document.

    To collect gov’t payouts you will sign that document.

    When you try to get medical service or fill a prescription for medications you will sign that document.

    The media will broadcast a message continuously that if you are caught with a firearm or supplies you will be incarcerated at hard labor for a period of no less than 10 years in a federal penitentiary.

    The media will also run PSA’s stating that a reward of $1000 will be given to anyone providing direct information that leads to the conviction of all violators of the gun ban.

    Your family and friends and neighbors will become Quislings and turn your ass in.

    In 1 year the entire country will have become completely pussified and all of the honorable patriots will have been exterminated.

    Criminals from top to bottom will reign supreme.

    All licenses will eventually expire and your bank account will (be seized) no longer work.

    If you have children in the public schools they will not be enrolled the following year.

    All of your insurances will expire and you will not be able to see a medical professional or get prescriptions filled.

    True, some die hards may elude the sieve a little longer.

    That is when phase 2 comes into play.

    Phase 2 includes access to foods, municipal and private utilities.

    They will systematically make possessing a firearm very difficult for most people.

    See, they have unlimited resources, time, and power, and you don’t.

    They will win, they always do.

    The only way they can be beaten is for them to trip over their own dicks, and they will, as they always do.

    Leviathan is a very large drunken ogre stumbling about, bent on destroying all it encounters and the best anyone can do is stay out of it’s way and let it kill itself, for if you get to close (to kill it) you run the risk of it falling on you, and when it falls everyone all around it falls to, like a sinking ship it pulls everything close, under.

    • Well from your state of mind, it’s just Futile to Resist and we might as well just turn in all our weapons right now, and everyone get on welfare to show our love of the global tit to Guarantee our feeble peasant survival.

      “they have unlimited resources, time, and power,”

      Yes because everyone sits around watching FOX thinking that 1 new R in office or some gun club (NRA) is going to save them. How’s that been working so far?

      Look what 1 guy (Dorner) did to the system in SoCal… Yes he died, but what if 100 or 1000 did the same? The system would crash as they Do Not have those Unlimited Resources that you and everyone thinks.

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